Update Number Three:
Nope, Mr Martin does not like to be called on how non historic this was. This is from LA Weekly. Again they gave Mr. Martin his chance to actually say his piece.
I was not comparing the flooding to the El Niño storms of 1983. Instead, the current storm’s position and strength at the surface is like a single storm that happened in early March 1983, with the same dynamics for severe weather and tornadoes as in that storm.
We are not done yet. Another round of storms hit tomorrow, and the low-level jet is backed again, with instability this time. This may bring another round of severe thunderstorms to the region, probably even worse than today’s storms. A reader at Southern California Weather Authority.com Facebook Page posted a possible tornado this afternoon. It may have been a very weak tornado.
I was called out by other sites because I predicted severe storms and tornadoes with this storm … But at the last minute the National Weather Service, who did not predict this storm back when I did on February 23, decided to go with the forecast I had put out initially.
The folks at the NWS did nothing of the sort, for those of us who followed the storm. Regardless, read the comments in the comment section. They are rather illuminating as well.
Update number two:
Mr Martin has also engaged in a campaign to try to silence his critics, on this storm particular, Mr. Martin actually contacted a poster on Daily Koss who was very critical of his forecast, before the storm hit. In the post Weather Dude writes that:
Kevin Martin contacted me through Facebook demanding that I take down this post, but rather than take it down and in the spirit of fairness (though I believe none is deserved in this case), I’ll present his claims the way he presented them to me and let you be the judge.
Mr. Martin claims that the website that originally published the article in question — “Northeast US Weather” — rents server space from his company The Weather Space (TWS). He claims that when a site overloads on his company’s servers, it redirects back to his company’s Facebook page. If you try to view the post I wrote about in this diary, this is what you get instead:
I find the nature of that post quite fascinating and illuminating as to the nature of this operation. What I also find fascinating is that he feels he needs to threaten people, in order to silence them. As I told him bellow, I find it fascinating that somebody who is suing the National Weather Service for them trying to shut him up.
By the way, The Weather Channel, not affiliated with the NWS, reissued the NWS statement on Mr. Martin. Here is a link for you.
Update, coming from the exchange bellow with Mr Martin:
For the benefit of all, Mr Martin has a history of issuing threats. Here is a list from Rational Wiki.
Threats to NOAA and NWS
When the National Weather Service released a statement in 2011 disclaiming any association with Martin, his websites, or “official alerts”, Martin posted a video on YouTube that depicted various NWS offices being blown up with explosives. Martin, seemingly unable to understand why that sort of thing might upset NWS employees and other federal authorities, posted a response on TheWeatherSpace.com explaining that “Blowing up would be a metaphor type art for weeding out the competition, not an actual threat.”. True to form, Martin eventually filed a frivolous lawsuit against the National Weather Service near the middle of September 2013
As usual, Martin claimed the National Weather Service’s statement was causing him anxiety and heart problems and that he planned to sue NOAA and NWS. Martin began soliciting donations for a “lawsuit fundraiser” to pursue what he referred to as “NOAA Vs Kevin Martin” (sic). Martin apparently posts regular rants at the Godlike Productions message forum, where users describe him as an “unstable person,” and one storm chaser organization said that legal advisors had “urged that people not donate to Martin,” saying, “it was most likely a scam to get money from unsuspecting victims.”
Threats to RationalWiki
A month prior to filing a ridiculous lawsuit against NOAA and NWS, Kevin (and eventually his brother) attempted to anonymously remove large chunks of this article. and posting legal threats on Talk pages. Upon it failing to produce any favorable results he desired, Martin proceed to sent the following message to RationalWiki’s operations manager, Trent Toulouse:
|If this is not taken care of we will put an article out with libelous stuff on it about your company, including hosting child pornography. We are connected to Google News at TheWeatherSpace.com and we will most certainly make your site a living nightmare for not listening to us.You are to REMOVE what we tell you, and I am the CEO of the company and I have that power to publish a libelous article about your site. We will accuse all staff members of child pornography and it will go on the top search engine searches for your site. We will further encourage all to not associate and/or donate to your site.Do you really want to start a war with me, son?Kevin Martin TheWeatherSpace.com CEO
And I think this is enough of the updates to actually clarify who Mr. Martin is, and I guess a blogger, at times reporter on fire lines, is a threat to him. I guess so is a poster on Daily Koss. It is fascinating.
Well, now that the storm has passed, it is time to really point out how wrong this guy was.
Where there dynamics in the atmosphere leading to a 1983 storm? No. They were much closer to three years ago, when we had a wet storm too. In 1983 sections of Soledad Mountain for example, fell off, because the ground was that saturated after almost a month of rain. Oh and actual people did die.
Here is the problem with this guy. Actually several.
He has a huge axe to grind with the National Weather Service. It is bad enough that the National Weather Service was forced to issue a statement a few years back:
SUBJECT: Clarification on Sources of Weather Information
NWS, part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has no association with the Southern California Weather Authority or with Mr.Kevin Martin or any other staff of the Southern California Weather Authority. Weather
forecast and warning products developed and distributed by Mr. Martin or the Southern California Weather Authority may have formatting or contain content that could visually be confused with that of the National Weather Service. Regardless of formatting or
content, Mr. Martin’s weather products have no connection with nor are they the products of the National Weather Service.
NWS is the sole official voice of the U.S. Government for warnings of hazardous weather, including tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, floods and others. NWS encourages the media and others to distribute NWS warnings and other hazardous weather products
widely to aid public safety.
NWS also respects the rights of individuals, companies, and other organizations to produce weather information of their own and to use NWS information to help them do so, including those who choose to produce weather information regarding weather hazards; however,
it is important to distinguish official products that are produced and issued by the National Weather Service from weather information produced by others that is NOT produced by NWS. It is especially important to avoid any confusion between NWS warnings and those that might be produced by others.
I will admit, I was taken by Martin’s original predictive post. and I read weather often. Why? It is in the formatting. I will add some things that were predicted by Mr. Martin and then claimed as real. One of them was a funnel cloud in Los Angeles. He even posted a screen cap of such a funnel cloud in Los Angeles. A simple search of the google revealed nothing of the sort. (There was one in Northern California though.) There is a funnel cloud from 2010 though in the LA area, and tornadoes are not that common, nor that rare in California. We even had a severe supercell go over my local area, I watched it in the radar returns.
Thunderstorms, yup, he was telling folks that thunderstorms were coming in, and even issued a few warnings, funny thing his material is coming from again the National Weather Service predictive service. And you would think for somebody who wants to look official an aviation warning would be in order when the shears were that high, and the thunderstorms were coming in. Yet, the only ones issuing such a warning were the fine folks at the local NOAA office.
Mr. Martin relies on creating a panic, to drive traffic to his commercial site. Ergo, he will issue the worst case scenario predictions based on the data, and sometimes not based on the data. This was a classic case of it. He was also predicting the storm would move East and wreak havoc. Storms do move East, they travel from lows to highs. and once they enter the West coast that is the general direction of travel. The NWS even said it would affect 100 million people and bring snow and ice East of us. None of this came as any level of surprise to any of us.
This is really something that bugs me to no end. Mr. Martin has a knack for predicting weather, but apparently he has missed the signs of global climate change. At this point this is no longer even in the realm of debate. He is not the only “weatherman” who has an issue with that, and one of them is on my TV every so often, and I avoid him like a plague. So just on that principle, I will also avoid Mr. Martin like the plague.
Hee has created a group of fans, who in their libertarian believes want to bring down NOAA and the National Weather Service. It is in the water this distrust for government. It is dangerous by the way. In moments of not levity but rather be careful what you wish for, I hope that Mr. Martin has success in this quest of his. After all, the “free” tools he uses including the geosynchronous orbit satellites, and NOAA run radar stations, will go away and his so called predictive genius will go with it. (Yes, they get privatized they leave the commons)
Oh and those services are truly not free. They are paid with your and mine taxes, and that equipment has increased reliable predictions. There is a fear that if we lose some of them, hurricane prediction will be off in the Gulf Coast for example.
When I was a medic I learned how to read weather. I tend to be ahead of the NWS many a times for Red Flag conditions and severe storms. Hell, there is a system, and another front off the coast 5-7 days from here, according to images provided by NASA. I will not say it will become a next wet system to hit Southern California, it is way too early for that. ( Although we need the water, so I would not mind), but if it does, you read it here first.
The system that just hit us, had a very well formed eye. My local NWS person even called it a cold hurricane.
The only thing Martin has right on all this is that indeed lives are at stake. But when you create a panic, you can actually kill or injure people. There is a reason why the NWS is immensely conservative when they issue warnings. They are always timely, and give time to prepare. Why when they do issue apocalyptic warnings, like they did for both Katrina and Superstorm Sandy, pay attention, they are not kidding or pulling your leg.
But take my word on this. The storm, it was not even to the level of 1997 when I was actually playing weather person, since another national weather predictive program did not have the gear for our town. And back then I used NOAA provided tools since we were very close to the border. I still do. Here they are for your enjoyment. It is a nice hobby, I admit. I will not try to supplant the experts though, and it has nothing to do with them having a degree in this and me not having it. They have served the nation extremely well. As far as I am concerned, it is good for me just to get my gear ready. And at times, well, I am way off, since well, predictive tools might tell you something even 72 hours off, but things do change in the atmosphere.
So if you chose to use him, be aware that his “service” will issue worst case predictions every time. And that your hit, means money in his pocket. I provided enough hits already. So I will not even bother with a link.